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30 November 2011

Is our obsession with the cuts blinding us to the oil shock?

The BBC's Evan Davis made a very interesting point when interviewing Labour's Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls this morning on Radio 4. Trying to wrongfoot Balls, the economically astute Davis stated that the 1% impact on consumer spending from Chancellor George Osbourne's cuts was much smaller than the 1.5% impact from what he called the 'oil shock'.

I was, ironically, driving to a client's site at the time and nearly swerved off the road. I have always believed that oil prices were hurting the recovery, but I didn't realise just how much an effect they were having.

We have pages and pages of newsprint and hour after hour of broadcast on the political battle between Osbourne and Balls over public spending, but almost nothing on oil prices. If Davis is right, and he most probably is, we are barking up the wrong tree. If we want to get the economy running again, weaning ourselves off our addiction to oil should must be much higher up the agenda.

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11 April 2011

The Oil Conundrum? The Answer Is Easy.

While I've been on holiday, oil prices have continued to rise - now over $125 a barrel and heading fast for its previous pre-global crash record of $147. What I find bizarre is the whole reactive stance in the press - "Oh, no! The economy is gonna crash!" - as if there is nothing that can be done.

Let's make it very simple for the hard of learning:

Energy bill = cost of 1 unit of energy x consumption

So there are two things we can all do:

1. Switch to a cheaper form of energy - not easy yet, but the rate things are going, renewables will soon be competitive with fossil fuels with the costs of the former falling and the latter rising, or,

2. Cut consumption. I have never visited a factory, an office or a home where I can't spy a couple of quick fixes within ten minutes. Proper energy efficiency takes longer, and possibly some investment - but huge savings can be made and, unlike redundancies, energy efficiency can improve the business rather than weaken it.

So why is nothing done on energy efficiency? Everyone likes blaming politicians, but Government intervention on energy efficiency has a checkered history - either broad sweeps like 55mph speed limits in the US, or advertising campaigns of doubtful impact. Only on social issues like fuel poverty do Governments really get traction and deliver results.

Captains of industry are meant to be able to see which way the world is going and adapt swiftly - but they often get this one wrong - witness how a couple of years ago the US motor industry didn't react quickly enough to a public looking for more efficient vehicles and kept churning out SUVs. More and more are opening their eyes, but the evidence is that many at the top do not see this as a strategic business issue and keep trying to 'manage' it.

And of course all of us as consumers can do our bit whether it is choosing a more efficient car (or a bicycle!), putting an extra layer of insulation in the loft or switching stuff off when it isn't needed.

We're all a little too wedded to cheap energy. And as Bob Dylan once said, back when he was still political, a change is gonna come. We can either do something about it or put our heads in the sand. The choice is ours.

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7 March 2011

The Politics of Oil

This weekend the global oil situation finally made its way onto the front pages of the UK press with, for example, The Guardian's report on Energy Secretary Chris Huhne calling for the UK to wean itself off oil and fast. By chance I've been reading Andrew Marr's excellent 'A History of Modern Britain' and came across this apposite paragraph:

One could write a useful political history which did not move beyond the dilemmas of energy supply. We can follow it from the winter of 1947 when the frozen coal stocks blew Attlee off course, through the oil-related shock of Suez and the destruction of Eden, to Heath's double confrontation with the miners, ending in his defeat in 1974, the rise of Scottish nationalism fuelled by North Sea oil, and then the epic coalfield confrontation between Margaret Thatcher and Arthur Scargill taking the story up to today's arguments about global warming and gas dependency on Russia. The simple fact of a small and crowded island energy dependent in an uncertain world has toppled prime ministers and brought violent confrontation to the streets.

Marr could have added many more in here - the rise of Al-Qaeda out of the murky world of the Saudi oil world, Saddam Hussein's original invasion of Kuwait - and many would say the US war on Iraq in 2003, the near bankruptcy of Russia by the oligarchs and a whole host of grubby, bloody little conflicts and kleptocracies all around the world.

Back here in the UK, being Energy Secretary used to be an extremely important role in Government, but it seemed to be relegated to the lower tiers during the North Sea oil and gas boom in the 1980s. Given the way oil prices and unrest are going, this could suddenly be reversed. Knowing Chris Huhne - a very shrewd operator - he's fully aware of the political risks and opportunities. In my opinion he's singing the right tune, but he's got the Herculean task of getting the Treasury to listen if he's going to succeed.

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23 February 2011

Are you prepared for an oil shock?

Yesterday I was writing a piece on major problems in the oil industry for The Sustainability Forum (it should go up today or tomorrow it's here). I was listing the various problems - the price hitting $108 a barrel, oil companies fleeing Libya, the IEA saying the price of oil was hitting global recovery etc, etc. This on top of the wikileaks revelation that Saudi oil reserves had been overstated by 40%, the BP oil spill, continuing debate about the onset of peak oil and suggestions that coal may stay so cheap for long.

What is pertinent for this blog is how should individual companies respond?

The first questions to ask concern your exposure. Are you dependent on logistics, business travel or commodities from overseas? Do you use oil based raw materials? Are you an energy intensive business? If oil prices stay above $100 a barrel, how does that affect the your long term viability? What about $150?

Once you have an idea of the risk, you can look for solutions: eg avoiding travel through teleworking, sourcing local or bio-based raw materials, alternatively fuelled vehicles, more efficient vehicles, smarter distribution and route planning, backloading of freight vehicles, eco-driving lessons for drivers, swapping to sea and/or train and electronic distribution (eg MP3s).

Don't stick your head in the sand here - even if a huge new source of cheap oil is found, most of the measures above will still cut your cost base, making you more competitive. You really can't lose.

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23 October 2009

The risk of oil price rises

Very interesting speech this week by John B Hess of oil exploration company Hess Corporation at the somewhat unsubtly titled "Oil and Money" conference in London. He caught the attention of the audience by declaring "The price of $140 per barrel oil was not an aberration; it was a warning." He went on to say that demand was outstripping supply and while production had either peaked or plateau'd ouside OPEC, it was still unlikely that we would hit a target of keeping global warming below 2°C while oil prices soar. Bleak indeed.

The oil price risk is one I communicate to my clients - if if you can handle current energy prices - what happens if they soar? Oil going above $100 a barrel was unthinkable a few years ago, but it went way over in the spring of 2008 and appears to be on its way back. This is a serious risk for many businesses and organisations - are you ready for it? Resilience is a term I'm pinching from the Transition movement - is your organisation resilient to the risks ahead?

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18 June 2008

Brent Crude Prices


Last night I was preparing slides for the Low Carbon Innovation seminar next week. On the 'business case' session, I got data from the FT website for the price increase of a barrel of brent crude oil over the last 12 months. The resulting graph was so shocking I thought I'd share it here.

Never mind legislation as a driver - our current economy is built on cheap energy but the new economy will need to survive on expensive energy. How will you make the leap?

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20 February 2008

Oil exceeds $100 mark for the first time

The Guardian is reporting that the trading price of oil on the futures market has tipped $100 a barrel - the first time since trading began in 1983. This is obviously going to put further upward pressure on energy prices to the consumer and industry.

It is well understood that energy efficiency is the most cost effective way of cutting bills. Certain UK organisations can get a free visit from the Carbon Trust who will identify some quick wins. However, I recommend setting up a staff committee to brainstorm solutions and filter suggestions from other employees will deliver you a wide range of low or no-cost measures and better motivated staff to boot.

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12 October 2007

Oil price at record high - is this the beginning of the end?

With the BBC reporting that oil prices are staying near the record high set in September, the 'peak oil' debate has started again.

'Peak Oil' is the theory that we are nearing the economic limit of oil exploration and extraction, beyond which the cost of extracting the fuel will soar. Estimates of when the peak will occur range from now (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) to 2037 (US Govt advisors). Others reject the idea that peak oil is happening at all, such as Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris (quoted by the BBC) who said "We don't endorse the idea at all."

The difficulty is that the oil & gas supply is a function of many different factors: politics (see Russia switching off Ukraine's gas supply in 2005), economics, geology (where the gas & oil is and in what quantities) and technology (what was uneconomic last year could be economic today). Apart from the geology, these factors are interrelated, unpredictable and may combine in unexpected and sudden ways.

If it is happening, we will be forced to decarbonise our economies swiftly. The only problem is, we won't probably know until long after it has started. If it isn't, then we should do it anyway for climate change and security of supply reasons.

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