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News & Views From the Front Line
Friday, 23 October 2009
The risk of oil price rises
Very interesting speech this week by John B Hess of oil exploration company Hess Corporation at the somewhat unsubtly titled "Oil and Money" conference in London. He caught the attention of the audience by declaring "The price of $140 per barrel oil was not an aberration; it was a warning." He went on to say that demand was outstripping supply and while production had either peaked or plateau'd ouside OPEC, it was still unlikely that we would hit a target of keeping global warming below 2°C while oil prices soar. Bleak indeed.The oil price risk is one I communicate to my clients - if if you can handle current energy prices - what happens if they soar? Oil going above $100 a barrel was unthinkable a few years ago, but it went way over in the spring of 2008 and appears to be on its way back. This is a serious risk for many businesses and organisations - are you ready for it? Resilience is a term I'm pinching from the Transition movement - is your organisation resilient to the risks ahead?
Labels: oil prices, peak oil, risk
# posted by Gareth Kane : 09:14
0 Comments
Wednesday, 18 June 2008
Brent Crude Prices
Last night I was preparing slides for the Low Carbon Innovation seminar next week. On the 'business case' session, I got data from the FT website for the price increase of a barrel of brent crude oil over the last 12 months. The resulting graph was so shocking I thought I'd share it here.
Never mind legislation as a driver - our current economy is built on cheap energy but the new economy will need to survive on expensive energy. How will you make the leap?
Labels: low carbon business programme, oil prices
# posted by Gareth Kane : 09:35
1 Comments
Wednesday, 20 February 2008
Oil exceeds $100 mark for the first time
The Guardian is reporting that the trading price of oil on the futures market has tipped $100 a barrel - the first time since trading began in 1983. This is obviously going to put further upward pressure on energy prices to the consumer and industry.It is well understood that energy efficiency is the most cost effective way of cutting bills. Certain UK organisations can get a free visit from the Carbon Trust who will identify some quick wins. However, I recommend setting up a staff committee to brainstorm solutions and filter suggestions from other employees will deliver you a wide range of low or no-cost measures and better motivated staff to boot.
Labels: carbon trust, energy efficiency, oil prices
# posted by Gareth Kane : 11:07
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Friday, 12 October 2007
Oil price at record high - is this the beginning of the end?
With the BBC reporting that oil prices are staying near the record high set in September, the 'peak oil' debate has started again.'Peak Oil' is the theory that we are nearing the economic limit of oil exploration and extraction, beyond which the cost of extracting the fuel will soar. Estimates of when the peak will occur range from now (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) to 2037 (US Govt advisors). Others reject the idea that peak oil is happening at all, such as Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris (quoted by the BBC) who said "We don't endorse the idea at all."
The difficulty is that the oil & gas supply is a function of many different factors: politics (see Russia switching off Ukraine's gas supply in 2005), economics, geology (where the gas & oil is and in what quantities) and technology (what was uneconomic last year could be economic today). Apart from the geology, these factors are interrelated, unpredictable and may combine in unexpected and sudden ways.
If it is happening, we will be forced to decarbonise our economies swiftly. The only problem is, we won't probably know until long after it has started. If it isn't, then we should do it anyway for climate change and security of supply reasons.
Labels: climate change, oil prices, peak oil
# posted by Gareth Kane : 08:32
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A highly accessible, practical guide to those who want to introduce sustainability into their business or organization quickly and effectively.
