Pic: design master, istockphoto

Like most people, I was rather surprised by the announcement that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in Q1 of 2026, despite a floundering Government, Trump’s tariffs, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Of course the latter will be a lagging factor and the effect of the high oil and gas prices might yet bite. But maybe it’s a positive sign of the UK further decoupling its economy from carbon – certainly the brainboxes at Carbon Brief calculate that the UK saved £1bn in gas imports in March alone.

Growth has been seen most strongly in services, but construction and manufacturing showed signs of life too, despite us being repeatedly told Net Zero is killing UK industry. In fact the only sector that took a hit was the travel sector as people reconsider holiday plans. But could this actually help the UK economy?

Roughly 80% of UK airport users are Brits, so the slowdown in flights should mean more UK citizens spending their disposable income here in the UK rather than abroad. Even if they have a staycation (= ‘a holiday in your own house’ is a hill I’ll die on), they’ll still be buying food etc in the UK rather than overseas, and without the carbon emissions of a flight. Ironically, we have a family holiday involving flights booked for this summer – the first time in years – so I have mixed feelings about the sudden dearth of airline fuel this year!

Going back to the big picture, it will of course be next quarter when we see whether this economic growth is a trend or a blip. But seeing the surge in clean energy and electrification driven by the crisis, decoupling is very likely to continue, not just in the UK, but around the world.