Ed Miliband – picture by Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street

Just as I started writing this, the Prime Ministerial podium was wheeled out onto the tarmac of Downing Street. Keir Starmer duly emerged to announce the end of his premiership. Meanwhile the King of The North, Andy Burnham, prepares to ride south (on a train) to pull the sword from the stone.

I’ve always found it strange how many people instinctively took so viscerally against Starmer. While I think he’s been a weak leader with low charisma, the sheer hate surprises me. While some blame his announcement to scrap the winter fuel allowance or some other policy, the dislike predates his general election win. A couple of months earlier, Labour leaning people were telling me on the doorstep during the local elections that they really didn’t like him. It was a vibe, and one he could never shake off.

Maybe it was just the constant dithering, almost from his first big move. When he was vying to take over from left wing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, he published a ten point plan. The third of these was:

3. Climate justice: Put the Green New Deal at the heart of everything we do. There is no issue more important to our future than the climate emergency. A Clean Air Act to tackle pollution locally. Demand international action on climate rights.

The Green New Deal was all the talk of the green activist sphere at the time, but, like the rest of the pledges, it was unceremoniously dumped not long after he was elected leader, with the pandemic taking the blame – “the world has changed”. The GND pledge was replaced in 2021 with a more business-friendly pledge to invest £28 billion a year in the green economy. Under constant fire from Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, this pledge was also quietly shelved a few months before the election.

In the early days of the Starmer Government, a source said that “only (Energy and Net Zero Secretary) Ed Miliband knows what he’s doing – and we sometimes wish he didn’t.” Rumours abounded that Starmer tried to shift Miliband to a different role early on, but, unlike Starmer, Miliband has a substantial power base within the Labour Party and he stayed put. In subsequent months, Starmer would make occasional and sometimes strong speeches on climate and Net Zero, before trying to water down commitments, most notably the EV mandate. It was probably no surprise that Miliband was one of the first cabinet members to tell Starmer to go. And it was noticeable that the green economy didn’t feature on the list of achievements he gave in his resignation announcement this morning.

So what now? Assuming that Burnham is crowned unopposed or bats aside any challengers, one of his biggest decisions is what to do with Miliband, a close political ally. Will Miliband want to stay in energy and Net Zero or be promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer? While that could panic the markets given Miliband’s old ‘producers vs predators’ speech (by ‘predators’ he meant the financial sector), it should be remembered that Miliband cut his teeth as an advisor to Chancellor Gordon Brown in the Treasury, so, as with energy, he knows his financial onions.

And on Net Zero itself, what’s coming next? Who knows! There’s an old joke that the definition of Burnhamite is ‘a substance of infinite malleability’. The key issue is whether Burnham will want to lift the ban on new North Sea oil and gas exploration to send a message on ‘growth’. As with the rhetoric around ‘bats and newts holding the UK economy back’, this doesn’t stand any scrutiny whatsoever, but the ‘clean break’ symbolism might be too tempting.

However, as per his tussles with Starmer, I suspect Miliband will have the final say. Underneath that dweebish exterior is a ruthless political operator (ask his brother) – do not underestimate him.