Looking on from afar, it is hard to judge how the climate change negotiations are going – for every ‘breakthrough’ story there is a counterbalancing ‘deadlock’ tale. But today is the day that all the world leaders are going to have to face reality – can they agree or can’t they? The biggest driver now will be face – which world leader wants to have been seen to have stood in the way of success?

I’m always an optimist, so here’s my worst case scenario…

1. Not getting an agreement does not stop individual action on a national level.

2. The political capital of having so many of the world’s leaders turn up makes that local action much more likely. This is now a mainstream issue, not one for environment ministries.

3. The discussions have brought home some inconvenient truths about who is responsible for climate change (rich nations) and who’s feeling the pain most (poor nations). A world where Tuvalu can take on China is the sort of world where I want to live.

4. Not even the best efforts of the denial dinosaurs, CRU e-mail hack and all, could impact on the process*.

5. Business can lead where Governments fear to tread. The increased awareness amongst the general public will boost green markets, lower resistance to innovations and reduce tolerance of high carbon behaviour. Green performance is already a source of competitive advantage and it will become more so.

If, through some unlikely last minute breakthrough, a legally binding agreement is made, then it is game on. High carbon businesses will soon become fossils, low carbon business will boom. I’m an optimist, I live in hope!

* If you want a bit of festive Friday fun, watch Ian Plimer, darling of the denial circuit, squirm as his “science” comes under scrutiny on Australian TV.