Don’t get too worried about Brexit just yet…
Yesterday at a kids party, a neighbour of mine asked me “You must be even more furious about the EU referendum result than I am?” She was quite surprised when I told her I was “sanguine” about it, despite having actively campaigned for an ‘IN’ vote.
Why? The most pivotal moment since the momentous result was the outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron refusing to pull the trigger on ‘Article 50’ which would start the Brexit process. This means that whoever takes over from him would have to actively pitch the country into the unknown. A poisoned chalice indeed.
If that is a Remainer Tory PM, what incentive is there to press the button and risk long term damage to our country? If it’s the current favourite, Brexiter Boris Johnson, he’s already signalled that there is “no rush”, that initial negotiations with the EU should be “informal” and that he wants to maintain a close relationship with Europe – a statement which has been interpreted as swift back-pedalling. If a new PM went to the polls, there’s a strong chance of a change of Government and the possibility of a party standing on a Remain ticket forming part of the Government. The EU referendum result is only advisory in law and could be trumped by an electoral mandate.
So there is no Brexit plan and no enthusiasm from anyone to make one. And my prediction is that, as the cold light of reality shines on the implications of walking away from the EU, Brexit will slowly but surely become Fudgit.
OK, but if I’m wrong, and we suddenly find ourselves on our own, what are the implications for Sustainability in the UK?
Well all existing EU environmental directives are enshrined in UK law during the implementation phase, so a post Brexit Government would have to actively dismantle what is there. Future directives would at least partly have to be adopted by UK companies to maintain trading links – and may be imposed as a condition of staying in the single market. The biggest downside of Brexit from this point of view would be our lack of a seat at the table when such directives are drawn up.
Also, we are a global economy. So if we want to sell to, say, Walmart, P&G or Unilever, our industry would be required to comply with their supply chain targets. These will only ever get more ambitious.
So, while I believe Brexit is the wrong path for our country, I’m not convinced that it will happen, or indeed that the drivers for sustainable business will diminish much if it did.