I had an interesting (off-the-record) chat with a contact in the energy sector yesterday. I was left with the clear impression that the fossil fuel sector is not only having to contract in the face of the shift to low carbon, but adapt to find the niches in the emerging energy mix where they can support renewables rather than compete head on.

I think this need to evolve is crucial as the changes keep coming, or new businesses will simply grab market share in the new reality. It has happened in electronics when the valve manufacturers didn’t adapt to the transistor, and, most notoriously, in photography where Kodak invented the digital camera and then sat back and watch others exploit that technology to cannibalise their market in a matter of years.

One of the interesting things about technology is you often get all the component parts way down the S-curve, but when the ingredients are right and the market ready, the rise can be explosive. It doesn’t surprise me for example that electric vehicles haven’t yet displaced the internal combustion engine, but when the change happens it could be very abrupt.

So you need to be scanning the horizon for the opportunities in your sector and be ready to exploit them, as those opportunities can be catastrophic threats to those who cling to the status quo.