Snap Verdict: Trump Victory and the Climate Battle
Oh dear, who saw that coming? Actually I kind of did, not through any great political or empathetic insight I have to say, just that, as 2016 has been such a unpredictable year already, you couldn’t rule anything out.
So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the battle against climate change?
On the impact of Brexit on the low carbon economy, I was sanguine. The UK still has plenty of climate laws, particularly the little-discussed but powerful ‘carbon price floor’ to make progress, and, as we have have seen since, new PM Theresa May has committed the country to the Paris Agreement.
With Trump, I’m not so optimistic. While the US Government system, the Republican Party and the cold light of reality will no doubt curb some of his more clownish election pledges, on climate change he is at one with much of the Republican world – denial. Coal mines, fracking, shale oil – these are all easy ways of delivering on his promise of jobs and energy security that he made to blue-collar America. His isolationist stance suggests that international agreements will get short shrift.
Being of an optimistic bent, I think our best hope is that business talks business to the tycoon Trump. If the Walmarts of this world demand low carbon, then that’s a big direct and indirect lever. If the Teslas can show how clean tech can create jobs, wealth and exports, that may hold some sway.
But at the end of the day, I can see nothing but a tough four years for our movement. Doesn’t mean we should give up, though, let’s keep fighting for a better future.