So is the Paris climate deal any COP?
It’s the Monday after the week before. They did it in Paris, signing an international treaty to tackle climate change, the world is rejoicing and the climate change deniers are left bleating ineffectually into their beer.
What did we get? Just this:
- A commitment by 195 countries to keep temperature rises to 2°C, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C;
- A mechanism to keep updating and reporting individual countries’ commitment (known as INDCs);
- Various mechanisms to transfer technology and cash from richer countries to poorer.
There was an interesting transition while the ink was drying on the agreement. The knee-jerk reaction of many NGOs was to condemn the proposals as ‘weak’ and a ‘betrayal’ – mainly because the INDCs were not ‘legally binding’. By this morning’s papers, those same NGOs seemed to have reeled in their reaction to ‘good, but not perfect’.
Indeed ‘good, but not perfect’ seems to be the verdict of the commentariat, but I disagree. I think the flexibility of the part-binding/part voluntary agreement will turn out to be its strength, much in the way a tree will flex in the wind but not break.
For a start, I don’t think there’s any such thing as ‘legally binding’ when it comes to such agreements. As one wag put it, “who’s going to invade Canada if they fall short?” Rigidity will encourage default, not enforce it and a rigid agreement would never have been signed. Peer pressure got the agreement signed, lets use it to drive it forward.
Secondly, Governments, technology and society changes, often abruptly. Different countries have differently cultures, demographics and geographic – the UK won’t be doing concentrated solar any time soon, Chad unlikely to invest in offshore wind. The flexibility will encourage innovation, investment and bring market forces to bear.
Thirdly, the part-voluntary nature undermines the argument from the loony end of the climate denier scale that climate change was invented by communists angry at the fall of the Soviet Union who wanted a world socialist Government. Left-leaning Governments can use more interventionist efforts, right-leaning Governments can use market mechanisms. Horses for courses.
And lastly, let’s congratulate the French. Just weeks after those horrific, nihilistic attacks in Paris, the French President François Hollande and his colleagues steered through an agreement to make the world a better place. It helps restore my faith in humanity. Bravo!