A couple of weeks ago, the wonderful Green Thinkers group I’m a member of considered Energy Without The Hot Air by David MacKay – a very analytical look at the energy challenge. Today there was an article in Guardian Sustainable Business taking a similar analytical look at electric cars. Both come to fairly pessimistic conclusions.

Despite all the numbers, I have a problem with this approach.

First, these analyses tend to use a snapshot of current technology and economics. They take little account of trends, future policy and obviously they can’t predict technological breakthrough as that is unpredictable.

But, more importantly, the authors seem to revel in how impossible the challenge is right now, rather than focussing on solving it in the medium/long term. We end up feeling powerless and frustrated, entangled in short term issues when we should be creating the future we want.

This happens to be the theme of this month’s Ask Gareth, if you haven’t already seen it. I explain why forecasting is dangerous and why you should backcast instead.

If you are interested in Backcasting, it’s one of the workshop formats I cover in my on-line Workshop Masterclass.